Art of Speculation
Art of Speculation|Oct 30, 2026 23:20
The Nasdaq closed the monthly chart today. The weekly chart shows three weeks of decline, with the monthly chart showing a false breakout above the June high. The bearish candlestick engulfed the previous month's bullish candlestick, confirming a double top divergence on the MACD and RSI. The question is whether it will pull back before rising again to form a larger divergence or form a lower high. Currently, it's uncertain, but with a lower high, I plan to clear out my holdings. A lower high is likely (the rebound's extent is uncertain, possibly reaching the midpoint of the monthly chart). The weekly chart shows distribution signs, with sideways consolidation at high levels, false breakouts followed by rapid pullbacks, and currently testing the lower edge of the trading range. False breakouts and false breakdowns are expected. The second chart shows the monthly top divergence patterns in 2018 and 2021, which were followed by varying degrees of pullback. In the short term, the daily chart has fallen to around the EMA 200. Short-term traders may see a rebound, with stop-loss orders placed below the EMA 200. The upside target is 700-710, with a likely second pullback before further gains. Short-term support levels are EMA 200 at 685, the July 2026 low at 661, and the lows connecting April 2025 and the end of March 2026 at 650.
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