The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter|Oct 30, 2026 18:46
The timing of today's market crash is noteworthy. As selling pressure spreads, the Nasdaq 100 is now down nearly -5% on the day. Meanwhile, the market-implied odds of a Democrat "sweep" in the Midterms next week has surged from 65% to 72% today, a record high. That's +7 percentage points in 2 days amid this market downturn. We have yet to receive a comment from the Trump Administration regarding the current situation in the market. However, what is clear is that the timing of today's market crash will be consequential. And, even as technology stocks drop sharply, US Treasury Yields are barely seeing any relief. This leaves us with high rates, a falling stock market, $100+ oil prices, and rising CPI, PPI, and PCE inflation. Next week is going to be interesting, to say the least.
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