Today's Market Overview (1) The theft incident has been digested for half a day... The sentiment in the Asian and European sessions has been released... Now we need to see what happens in the US session... Let's look at the various data before drawing conclusions... Funding (Figure 1) During the Asian and European sessions, BTC spot trading on Binance and Coinbase has been continuously sold off... CVD has decreased. Contracts are also mainly selling. However, there is currently a divergence; the continuous selling has not created a lower low. Coinbase Premium (Figure 2) The current Coinbase negative premium is the largest negative value in a long period of time. This consists of two parts: one is that the USDT negative premium has also reached a very negative end. (The hacker sold some USDT at a discount to exchange for ETH before the freeze, and now arbitrageurs are dealing with these discounted USDT.) The other part is that Coinbase's true premium after removing the exchange rate is also negative. Therefore, there is also selling pressure in the US session. The sentiment in the US market still needs to be released, especially the surge in ETF trading after the opening. ---------------- On the other hand, bulls are actively positioning themselves at this level. Looking at the order book (Figure 3): Currently, whether on Binance spot, futures, or Coinbase futures, there are a large number of new buy orders below 76.5k. There is still a demand for funds to enter the market here. The large number of buy orders below has resulted in a dense banding pattern on the price chart (Figure 4). The most recent instance of such concentrated fund positioning was in mid-September when the price plummeted to 75k due to speculation about an interest rate hike. Before that, it was around 60k... A counter-example is the sustained one-sided drop in February... Therefore, based on historical win rates and risk/reward ratios, this is a worthwhile position for swing trading with bulls. But entering the market now isn't necessarily the right time... It's still a bit too late to the left... The proportion of long positions in Binance retail accounts rose from 63% to 73%, while the actual long position of large accounts actually increased from 67.5% to 63.6%. There's a bit too much buying at the moment... We can wait for the US stock market to release some momentum today and over the weekend... (To be continued)