Binance was hacked. How has the market reacted historically after exchanges were hacked? A review of past events: 2014 Mt. Gox: Approximately 850,000 BTC were stolen, leading to bankruptcy. Users waited ten years to recover a portion of their holdings. BTC subsequently experienced a long bear market, dropping 70-80% in a year. 2016 Bitfinex: Approximately 120,000 BTC were stolen, causing a 20% drop on the first day. The platform issued debt tokens to gradually repay the losses, recovering within a few months, followed by the 2017 bull market. 2018 Coincheck: Approximately $500 million in NEM was stolen, coinciding with the peak of the bull market, and subsequently entering a bear market. 2019 Binance: 7,000 BTC were stolen. The SAFU fund fully covered the losses, the market barely reacted, and the price later rose to $13,000. 2022 FTX: Not a hack, but a fraudulent scheme involving the misappropriation of user funds. Unable to compensate, BTC dropped another 20%, SOL halved, and the market experienced a full year of bear market. 2025 Bybit: Approximately $1.5 billion was stolen. ETH managed to cover its losses within days by borrowing money, but coupled with a weak macro environment, BTC steadily declined from over 90,000 to below 80,000. The pattern is simple: if the market can withstand the drop, it's a short-term sharp decline; if it can't, it's a bear market. Ultimately, it depends on the overall economic environment. Binance has frozen approximately 3 billion, stating they'll use their own funds to compensate, which is more like the 2019 and Bybit incidents. While they could potentially cover the losses, the hackers still hold about 1.4 billion BTC and 1 billion ETH that haven't been sold, making freezing them impossible. This is the real sword hanging over their heads. Add to that the generally weak earnings reports from US tech stocks, and the market will likely continue to consolidate in the short term. The real focus will be on when the fate of these BTC and ETH becomes clear.