Benson Sun
Benson Sun|10月 30, 2026 00:54
I know everyone is panicking right now, so let me look at this from a different angle. Regarding the Binance theft, Binance has officially confirmed that approximately $2.5 billion in assets have been frozen, roughly half of the total stolen amount. The remaining bulk consists mainly of BTC and ETH. Let's start with BTC. About a billion dollars were taken, but it won't be easy to actually create selling pressure. Bitcoin doesn't have large, highly liquid mixers like Tornado Cash on Ethereum. These addresses are also flagged by major exchanges and blockchain analytics firms, making it much more difficult to transfer or liquidate than with ETH. Looking back at past large-scale thefts, the Bitcoin stolen from Bitfinex in 2016 remained untouched for several years. In July of this year, approximately 1,800 BTC were stolen from cold wallet provider Coldcard. As of early September, 90% of these BTC remained untouched, with the hackers only managing to withdraw a small portion sporadically via cross-chain bridges. The Binance theft is ten times larger, involving billions of dollars worth of BTC. Just the process of splitting addresses and mixing the coins would take years, followed by discounted OTC transactions; the entire process would take at least several years. Therefore, while the stolen BTC appears negative, it actually acts as a form of asset locking. Furthermore, if Binance uses SAFU to compensate, it will have to replenish the BTC afterward. In this back-and-forth, the short-term selling pressure from the stolen BTC is almost zero, and Binance may actually see buying pressure. ETH fared much worse. Many ERC-20 tokens were exchanged for ETH and then dumped into Tornado, making it virtually impossible to catch up. All things considered, the actual market sell-off is likely in the billions of dollars. Market confidence will certainly be affected, but the direct selling pressure on Bitcoin itself isn't as significant as imagined. Hopefully, after this experience, the entire industry can truly unite to prioritize cybersecurity issues in the post-AI era. From hot money management and signature authorization to increasingly powerful AI attack methods and even quantum-resistant deployments, preparations should begin in advance.
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