小龙先生
小龙先生|Oct 29, 2026 22:33
A-shares plummeted yesterday. Is it time to buy A-shares at the bottom? Is Bitcoin a good investment now? My answer is clear: buying now is like catching a falling knife halfway down a mountain. I've summarized five points, each more compelling than the last. First, AI concept stocks are being revalued. Google and Meta fell sharply because the market realized that the huge capital expenditures in AI couldn't fill the profit gap. With the US stock market's AI faith wavering, can A-share optical modules and computing power chains remain unaffected? Impossible. Second, two major obstacles are weighing on the market. High oil prices (above $110) and high US Treasury yields (5%). Global liquidity is tightening, and overvalued growth stocks are bearing the brunt. These two obstacles are simultaneously impacting US stocks, Bitcoin, and A-share tech stocks. Third, current prices are not the bottom at all. US stocks are still precariously high. If US stocks crash in 2027, A-shares will absolutely not be immune. Looking back at 2008 and 2022, when did A-shares escape the plunge in US stocks? Fourth, institutional investors are making a massive retreat. Yesterday, the market saw a net outflow of 82.4 billion yuan. This isn't a simple short-term market correction; it's institutional investors cyclically fleeing. While the policy bottom may be supported by the national team, it's still a long way from the true market bottom. Fifth, a global financial crisis is highly likely to erupt in 2027. The debt cycle's risks and the AI bubble's risks will inevitably burst sooner or later. If you use up all your ammunition now, what will you use to pick up the bloodied chips when the real crisis creates a deep crater? Take my advice: Four of the points above also apply to US stocks and Bitcoin. Don't rush to buy the dip in A-shares, US stocks, or Bitcoin. Hold onto your cash tightly and wait until the end of 2027, when global assets are at rock-bottom prices, then come and pick up bargains. Now, it's not about who earns the most, but who survives until that day.
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