小龙先生
小龙先生|Oct 29, 2026 21:06
⚡️If the US stock market crashes in 2027, will the A-share market escape unscathed, or will it collapse along with the US market? Let's look at three sets of historical data: In 2008, the S&P 500 fell 41%, and the CSI 300 fell 64%. In 2022, the Nasdaq fell 33.1%, the ChiNext fell 29.37%, and the STAR Market 50 fell 31.35% (see the comparison chart of the US and Chinese stock markets below). In April 2025, the tariff impact will cause Nasdaq futures to fall by more than 5%, and the ChiNext fell 12.5% in a single day. The A-share market has never "escaped" a US stock market crash. However, the way the A-share market dies is different from that of the US stock market. When the US stock market crashes, the A-share market follows suit. The difference is that the A-share market is policy-driven; the national team will intervene. Huijin's past market interventions have shown varying degrees of success: a 40-day lag in 2008, a 6-month lag in 2015, and a 2.5-month lag in 2018. A policy bottom does not equate to a market bottom, but intervention to support the market is inevitable. The truly critical issue is the stock market structure. The correlation between the ChiNext index and the Nasdaq is very high, reaching 0.94 since 2024. In 2022, the Nasdaq fell 33%, and the ChiNext followed suit with a 29% drop. A-share AI computing power chains, optical modules, and PCBs are inextricably linked to US tech stocks. When US AI capital expenditures contract, the earnings expectations of these sectors are the first to collapse. Therefore, the final answer is clear: The A-share market has the support of the national team, so the decline will not be deep. The ChiNext, AI concept stocks, and chip stocks will collapse along with the US stock market, without any support. A US stock market crash will not wipe out the A-share market. However, your positions in AI concept stocks and chip stocks will most likely be buried alive.
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