YIN|10月 29, 2026 12:31
Google's Q3 revenue was $127.6 billion, a 25% year-over-year increase, but both revenue and EPS missed expectations, marking the first time in nearly four years. Cloud revenue doubled.
However, capital expenditures were $51.2 billion, operating cash flow was $42.3 billion, and free cash flow was negative $9.1 billion, compared to a positive $24.5 billion a year ago.
Full-year capital expenditure guidance remains at $195-205 billion, with a statement that it will "significantly increase" by 2027.
Google shares fell 11% pre-market, which I believe is due to sentiment selling, not a decline in fundamentals.
1️⃣ EPS of 2.12 missed expectations, but included an $8.7 billion unrealized loss on equity investments, reportedly mainly from the SpaceX holding, dragging down the earnings by approximately $0.55. This is a non-cash item; excluding this, the loss is $2.67.
2️⃣ Google Cloud revenue reached $30.7 billion, a 103% year-over-year increase, exceeding the expected $21.1 billion. Operating margin was 36.2%.
3️⃣ Cloud order backlog reached $561 billion, an increase of $47 billion in one quarter. Today's capital expenditures correspond to signed contracts.
4️⃣ Although free cash flow turned negative, the company has $265.1 billion in cash and marketable securities, and revenue still increased by 25%.
5️⃣ The stock price has retreated nearly 30% from its May high.
I acknowledge the risks: search growth is slowing to 12%, capital expenditures will increase significantly in 2027, and the company is still raising equity financing. However, many of these risks are already reflected in the current price.
Short-term focus is on cash flow; long-term focus is on cloud computing. I choose the long-term.
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