The Nasdaq has failed to break through 30,000 points three times in a row, and the short-term trend remains weak. Previously, I set 29,000 as a defensive level and 30,000 as a confirmation level for a potential reversal. The actual market movement largely matched my prediction: the index found support after retracing to 28,900, rebounding to a high of nearly 29,850, before falling back again. There was some buying pressure around 29,000, while selling pressure was stronger in the 29,750-30,000 range. Structurally, after peaking at 31,250, the highs have been consistently lower. Currently, the index is below the 20-day moving average (around 30,060) and the 50-day moving average (around 29,850). The daily RSI is around 46, and the MACD remains weak, indicating that oversold pressure has eased somewhat, but reversal conditions have not yet formed. Macroeconomic pressure stems from interest rates. The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate range at 3.75%-4.00%, with two members supporting a rate hike. The policy focus remains on controlling inflation. If GDP remains strong and PCE exceeds expectations, US Treasury yields may continue to rise, putting renewed pressure on tech stock valuations. Only when the economy and inflation cool down simultaneously will funds be more likely to increase their risk positions. The divergence in earnings reports is also noteworthy. Microsoft gained recognition for its cloud business and cash flow, while Google faced a sell-off due to excessive AI investment and insufficient profit realization. The market has begun to rigorously examine the return on AI capital expenditures, and the stage of relying solely on narratives to drive valuations is ending. The baseline range for the near future is 28900-30000. A weak, volatile market that holds above 29850 could retest the 30000-30150 range. A breakout above 30150 with volume targets 30500, while a break below 29200 will retest 28900. A breach of 28900 could lead to 28500-28700, with an extreme low of 28000. Before the 30,000-point mark is recovered, the rebound should be mainly for reducing positions and observing the market's momentum; a true strengthening trend requires confirmation from a price breakout, improved technology earnings reports, and a decline in US Treasury yields.