qinbafrank|10月 29, 2026 10:40
Intel will release its Q3 earnings report early tomorrow morning. The server business has a chance to deliver slightly better-than-expected results, but whether it can further revise its profit forecast after the report depends on Q4 delivery capacity and how much profit the new revenue can generate.
This company is currently facing an interesting paradox. While the PC market remains under pressure, market expectations for Intel's revenue are rising. The CPU demand driven by AI is buying it time to recover. At the same time, advanced manufacturing processes and new factories continue to incur costs.
Returning to specific figures, my Q3 forecast is: revenue of $16.4 billion to $16.8 billion, with a core of approximately $16.6 billion; adjusted EPS of $0.40 to $0.45, with a core of approximately $0.42; and adjusted gross margin of 42% to 43%. This is my projection, slightly biased towards the upper end of market expectations. Support mainly comes from server deliveries and improved product mix, while also leaving some leeway from the pressure on the PC market. Several ranges need to be considered together; when revenue and gross margin are both at the lower end, the upper end of EPS alone cannot be used.
For the fourth quarter, the market expects revenue of approximately $17.1 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.44. I tend to favor the company's revenue guidance, with the midpoint between $17.1 billion and $17.5 billion, the midpoint of adjusted EPS at $0.44 to $0.50, and an adjusted gross margin guidance of approximately 42.5% to 44%. This refers to my forecast for future guidance.
If third-quarter revenue exceeds $16.8 billion and adjusted EPS exceeds $0.45, while the midpoint of fourth-quarter revenue guidance reaches above $17.6 billion and the gross margin approaches 44%, I would consider it a strong reason to raise subsequent earnings expectations. These are the benchmarks I use to differentiate between strong and weak results; stock price reactions will also be influenced by previous expectations and market conditions.
If third-quarter revenue only reaches $16 billion to $16.3 billion, then we need to see if it can be recovered in the fourth quarter. Delayed deliveries and weakening demand have significantly different impacts on subsequent judgments.
Currently, my confidence in the realization of server demand is higher than my confidence in the rapid return on investment in contract manufacturing. Intel has indeed been given a window of opportunity to fix the issues, but how long it will last and the extent of the fix will depend on implementation over the next few quarters.
See the full article on OKX Planet for details.
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