懂币猫|Oct 29, 2026 03:38
AI market trends are driven by storage, storage market trends are driven by South Korea, and the South Korean stock market is driven by foreign investment (especially from the US). The flow of foreign capital into the South Korean stock market can be considered both a "barometer" and a "canary in the coal mine" for AI market trends.
Let's look at the inflow and outflow of foreign capital in the South Korean stock market:
From October 1st to 26th, foreign investors in the South Korean stock market saw a net outflow of approximately 19.11 trillion won. The KOSPI index fell by over 20% during the same period, returning to levels seen in April of this year. Despite the efforts of South Korean retail and institutional investors to manipulate the market, they were unable to reverse the trend.
However, on the 27th and 28th, foreign investors saw net inflows for two consecutive days, totaling 1.65 trillion won, showing some marginal improvement.
Why are foreign investors buying storage in South Korea again at this time?
I believe there are two main reasons: 1) Hynix's strong Q3 financial report, along with its large-scale shareholder returns and share buyback plan; 2) From the daily candlestick chart, the consolidation range in March and April, coupled with the sharp drop at the end of July, formed a strong bottom support structure, which yesterday's post mentioned as a key target area.
Foreign capital chose to flow back in at this time, presumably anticipating a strong rebound.
It's a rebound, not a reversal, and I believe the core reason is that memory chip stocks are still in a medium-term downtrend.
Fundamentally, there's a lack of further positive narratives.
Firstly, long-term contracts limit Hynix's growth potential. Transparent pricing and supply have allowed the market to pre-trade some of the growth expected over the next few years.
Secondly, the competitive pressure from the expansion of the two long-term suppliers will inevitably lower Hynix's prices and profit margins, thus compressing its valuation.
Furthermore, Hynix's capital expenditure in 2027 is expected to increase significantly compared to 2026, which will affect free cash flow in the short term, and depreciation pressure will gradually materialize later. The key question is whether the revenue and profit generated by the new production capacity, after deducting the new costs and depreciation, can continue to provide better-than-expected shareholder returns.
This creates a combination of "good company + good performance + stock price not rising," and the market is worried about the unsustainability of high profitability and high returns.
Technically, the rebound momentum in the past two days has been strong, but the upward pressure is also obvious. Taking Hynix as an example:
1. The MACD has formed a golden cross, and the RSI(5) is close to 70, indicating that the short-term momentum is very strong and there is a risk of overbought conditions. However, approaching overbought levels doesn't necessarily mean the rebound is over immediately; after a slight consolidation, it could continue its upward momentum.
2. The 60-day and 120-day moving averages are still trending downwards, and the 200-day moving average is providing resistance around 1.49 million won. Several attempts to break through today failed to hold, and the closing price was below the 200-day moving average, indicating strong selling pressure.
3. The ultimate height of the rebound will depend on momentum, especially the movement of foreign capital. I believe the first target is the 1.7-1.9 million won range.
I maintain my judgment that the explosive upward trend in the storage market is over; we are now seeing more wide-ranging swings, and a one-sided trend still needs time to develop.
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