HIGER|Oct 29, 2026 00:33
The Federal Reserve held rates steady as expected, maintaining them at 3.75%–4%. However, two voters (Cook and Hammack) demanded an additional 25 basis points (bp) increase.
As I mentioned two days ago, whether the rate remained unchanged or increased in December, the impact on BTC would be limited, and this seems to be the case now, with Bitcoin still above $81,000 after the meeting.
Here are a few key points from this meeting worth noting:
1. The statement described the economy as "strongly expanding" and "inflation remaining high," stating that they would wait for "more information" before deciding on the next step, without closing the door on rate hikes;
2. The vote was 10 to 2. In July, Hammack, Logan, and Kashkari voted against it. This time, Logan and Kashkari regained the majority, but Cook voted against it for the first time since taking office in 2022, siding with the rate hike;
3. Warsh announced that starting in 2027, there will be one annual FOMC meeting to discuss the monetary policy framework only, without voting or issuing statements.
From this perspective, the probability of a rate hike in December has increased significantly. At the same time, Warsh prefers to adopt a laissez-faire approach, relying on market mechanisms to adjust rate hike expectations on their own.
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