I think US stocks and Bitcoin are in serious trouble going forward! It's not because of one bad news item, but because five ropes are tightening around their necks simultaneously. First, the Fed's "no rate hike" is a pause in the hawkish stance. They held rates steady in October, but two voters dissented. The market is betting on a December rate hike. Oil prices are still above $110, and inflation isn't being suppressed. The Fed isn't changing course; they're waiting for data. Second, BTC can't even reach 82K. After the positive news of no rate hike in October was released, BTC only reached a high of $81,800, not even touching $82,000. The positive news couldn't push it up, indicating that buying pressure has exhausted itself. Third, Trump is very likely to lose the House of Representatives. On Polymarket, the probability of Democrats winning the House is 93%, and on Kalshi, it's 90%. They also have a majority in the Senate. The market is voting with its money; the Democrats winning at least the House is practically a done deal. Once Congress changes hands, Trump's remaining two years will be a lame-duck situation. Fourth, a lame-duck president is most likely to seek attention abroad. Trump and senior officials have repeatedly emphasized that "there will be no attack on Iran before the midterm elections under any circumstances." As soon as the election is over, bombing Iran could be launched at any time. CNN has already reported that the US military could take action within 96 hours. Fifth, oil prices and US Treasury bonds are two triggers. Brent crude oil is above $110, and the 10-year US Treasury yield is 5%. A single shot could send oil prices soaring to $120, inflation expectations exploding, and US Treasury yields pushing even higher. Non-interest-bearing risk assets will be the first to fall: US stocks, gold, and Bitcoin, among others. The financial markets currently appear calm. The VIX fear index is currently at 19, indicating no market panic. But the fuse for the storm has been lit and could explode at any moment! Key turning point: After November 3rd. If Trump loses the election, his primary target for venting his anger will most likely be Iran. The global financial markets will pay the price for his venting of anger. From now on, observe more, act less, and hold onto your wallet!