Phyrex
Phyrex|Oct 28, 2026 20:59
Translating Warsh's speech will shorten my life by two days. Overall, Warsh's attitude this time was quite hawkish. Although he didn't explicitly say that interest rate hikes would be maintained in December, his answers indicated that he believes the US economy is doing well, employment is strong, and he repeatedly expressed his view that US inflation is high. He also said that monetary tightening can be maintained without harming American jobs. Based on these views, at least in my personal opinion, he's quite hawkish. Additionally, he reduced the number of interest rate meetings in 2027 and 2028. Currently, there are eight meetings a year; the plan is to adjust to seven in 2027 and six in 2028. The specific reasons weren't clearly stated, but I personally estimate that fewer meetings will reduce the impact on the market. To some extent, this probably satisfies Trump's needs, since less interference means less impact on the stock market. Oil prices remain high, and as Warsh himself has said, there's not much that can be done; it's all due to geopolitical conflicts. Indeed, it's not entirely Warsh's fault, as it's all Trump's fault. Thursday night will see the core September PCE data, and an increase is highly probable; the question is how much. However, my personal view is that the market has already priced in a December rate hike, so the current data isn't very useful. Even if it does impact the market, it should be short-term. Today, Bitcoin and US stocks saw a slight rebound, along with oil prices and the 10-year US Treasury yield—all rising. However, I didn't touch bitcoin:native today; I'll wait for the PCE data. If they're still rising, it'll be a nightmare. A @Gate account for more market information.
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