Yuyue|Oct 28, 2026 15:56
In the Predict project, those who participate in airdrop farming might not ultimately earn as much as the alpha participants. The 7% from the first quarter only yields about a third; the final airdrop profit is likely just enough to cover transaction fees. Therefore, the current airdrop farming model is closer to arbitrage, using the final airdrop to cover transaction fee losses. The purpose of generating trading volume is to make money, not to distribute airdrops.
Taking this year's projects as examples, the first type is perp arbitrage, represented by Variational; the second type, I haven't practiced but have seen others do, involves predicting the market's XXX five-minute prediction results and manipulating the five-minute candlestick chart to guarantee a win, as well as Pre-TGE projects predicting market capitalization; the third type is LPs of stock-based tokens, such as the new project Metric, where being an LP itself generates returns (though there are also impermanent losses).
The ultimate goal is still to make money, not to collect airdrops.
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