看不懂的SOL
看不懂的SOL|Oct 28, 2026 15:14
That seems to be the case? We'll be developed in a few years... A recent Goldman Sachs report indicates that the RMB will appreciate by an average of about 4% annually against the USD over the next few years, reaching an exchange rate of around 6 by the end of 2028 and around 5.5 by the end of 2031. Of course, this is just a prediction and may not be accurate, but according to the latest price level index published by the World Bank, the US is at 100, China at 57, and Western Europe at an average of just over 80. That is to say, China's price level is slightly more than half that of the US and about two-thirds that of Europe. In the long run, price differences between different economies will eventually revert to the mean, so RMB appreciation is reasonable. If this comes true, there are three inferences: 1. This year, our per capita GDP is around $15,000, and by 2030 it will exceed $20,000, possibly around $23,000, exactly meeting the World Bank's standard for developed economies. This is exactly the same path Japan and South Korea took in terms of per capita GDP growth: the first half relied on productivity development, and the second half on currency appreciation. In the first half of the period, people's sense of happiness was relatively strong, with a greater sense of gain each year. The second half, however, felt somewhat inexplicable; it seemed nothing had changed, yet suddenly we were a developed country. Of course, there are differences between developed countries. $23,000 is just the starting point. Western Europe currently requires $70,000, Western Europe $40,000, and Japan $35,000. $23,000 is roughly equivalent to the current levels in Romania and Uruguay, slightly lower than the $30,000 or so in Hungary, Greece, and Poland, and basically matches our current standard of living. 2. Currently, the yield on US Treasury bonds is around 5.5% annualized. Many people are considering holding US Treasury bonds to earn interest, but this is unnecessary. Our current bank deposit interest rate is around 2%, plus an annual appreciation of about 4%, which translates to an annualized return of about 6% in US dollars, roughly the same. 3. From an asset perspective, currency appreciation cycles usually coincide with bull markets in the real estate and stock markets. By the way, Goldman Sachs represents a particularly aggressive view; most institutions also believe that exchange rates will rise, but not as rapidly, averaging around 2% per year. You guys can calculate the specific impact yourselves; it's quite a difference.
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