All assets are celebrating, but crude oil not only didn't fall, it actually rose. This is highly unusual; the global market is very fragmented! WTI crude oil futures rose over 2% today, breaking through $102; Brent crude rose above $111. Therefore, the real signal isn't "don't buy crude oil," but rather that "crude oil has quietly rebounded itself while all other assets are rising." What does this mean? The market is betting on two completely opposite things. First, betting that the Fed won't raise interest rates in October. The probability of a rate hike has dropped to around 10%, and everyone is waiting for Warsh's press conference. If Warsh is dovish, risk assets will continue to rise. Second, betting on a de-escalation of the Middle East situation. Previously, oil prices fell because the market was trading on "Iran wanting to talk." But today's rebound in oil prices indicates that this expectation is wavering. These two things are contradictory. If oil prices rebound, inflation won't come down, and even if Warsh doesn't raise rates in October, he'll have to raise them in December. Therefore, the current euphoria is built on the short-term consensus of "no rate hike in October." Once Warsh admits in his press conference that "inflationary pressures remain stubborn," or oil prices continue to surge, this consensus will crumble instantly. The market is celebrating a pause, while the Fed is preparing for the next move. What you perceive as euphoria is merely the calm before the storm; everyone is pretending not to hear the thunder. Don't be fooled by short-term gains! Remember to secure your profits during the subsequent rebound!