The Fed's interest rate decision tomorrow morning is highly likely, but the key question is how Warsh will respond. The flurry of statements from multiple Fed officials in October all signaled a tightening strategy of "raising rates every other meeting"—meaning a rate hike in September, skipping October, and raising again in December. Previously, New York Fed President John Williams explicitly stated that "there was no urgent need for action in October," implying only one more rate hike this year; Fed Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson stated that policymakers might need more time to assess the data; and Governor Waller summarized this position as: rate hikes "don't need to be done in consecutive meetings, but should be done within a reasonable timeframe." The September FOMC meeting minutes also confirmed this framework: all 19 officials supported a September rate hike, and a "majority" of officials believed that one more rate hike this year was appropriate. Therefore, a rate hike by the FOMC this time is highly probable, but Warsh's view on the December action could be crucial: 1) Warsh needs to explain to the market how he views the inflation trend. 2) Will he emphasize more that inflation will reinforce the flattening of the yield curve and push front-end interest rates higher, or will he emphasize more that tighter financial conditions could cause the curve to steepen again? 3) Will he say something like, "Any further interest rate adjustments will depend on data trends, the evolution of the outlook, and the balance of risks," or will he remain completely silent on the policy path? If the Fed does not raise interest rates this time and remains ambiguous about the December path, the market will start focusing on the present. Tomorrow morning, Microsoft and Google will also be releasing their earnings reports. If the reports show that AI commercialization is accelerating faster than the market expects, then a rally can indeed be expected before the Anthropic roadshow.