FOMC Preview: Short-Term Tech Stocks and Semiconductors Remain Under Pressure Conclusion: I believe the FOMC is highly unlikely to raise interest rates this time, but Warsh will likely continue to be hawkish. I maintain a bearish outlook on tech stocks and semiconductors in the short term. 1. Too much water, too much flour; too much flour, too much water. Market expectations for an October rate hike are very low; maintaining the current rate is unlikely to be considered an additional positive. However, if the Fed acts too dovishly, the market will pre-emptively trade easing, leading to lower Treasury yields, a rising stock market, and looser financial conditions, making it even more difficult to control inflation. Therefore, pausing rate hikes while maintaining a hawkish tone can both suppress easing expectations and leave room for future policy adjustments. 2. I focus on oil prices regarding the future path of rate hikes. The Fed will ultimately look at CPI, PCE, and employment data, and oil prices are a crucial variable influencing the short-term inflation path. Further downside, oil prices are affected by the US-China-Russia rivalry, the Middle East situation, and OPEC+ supply policies. The Fed can adjust interest rates, but it cannot directly control energy supply. With oil prices remaining high, tightening pressures are unlikely to subside; only a significant drop in oil prices could ease subsequent inflationary pressures. Of course, whether interest rate hikes can end depends on whether core inflation and employment trends cooperate. 3. Ultimately, this will lead to valuation pressures on tech stocks and semiconductors. If hawkish statements drive up real interest rates and financing costs, the market's willingness to assign valuation multiples to AI may decrease. High-growth chip companies face valuation compression, while AI infrastructure companies reliant on external financing will face financing pressure from massive capital expenditures. Earnings may continue to grow, but stock prices may fall due to valuation compression. Therefore, my trading strategy remains: remain cautious in the short term, and be more inclined to reduce positions on rebounds or wait for confirmation of short-selling conditions. However, the pause in hawkish sentiment may have already been partially priced in; one should not immediately short after hearing a single hawkish statement. The key is to watch whether the US2Y rate, long-term real interest rates, and the prices and option structures of the QQQ and semiconductor sectors confirm this simultaneously. If oil prices fall significantly and real interest rates decline, this bearish assessment will also need to be adjusted. Next, we will continue to combine macroeconomic data, financial statements, and option structures to track relevant trading opportunities on the MSX. Control your position size and leverage; don't treat macroeconomic assessments as certainty. MSX Invitation Link: http://(msx.com)/?code=h5cc95