Morgan Stanley: Soaring Real Yields Keep Gold Prices Above $4,000, Central Bank and ETF Buying Provide Support According to a report by TechFlow Research on October 26, 2026, Morgan Stanley's gold price has only fallen 10% from its August high and remains slightly above $4,000/ounce. Based on the real yield relationship from March to July 2026, the gold price should be below $3,000/ounce, a 28% decrease. Central bank purchases in Q2 2026 reached an annualized of 1,155 tons. Morgan Stanley believes that the surge in real yields has not crushed gold prices; the gap comes from structural demand such as central bank purchases and ETF inflows. Global gold ETF inflows in Q3 reached a record $31 billion. Gold's hedging function against stocks has been ineffective since 2020, but it still provides a buffer against the worst bond sell-off weeks. Morgan Stanley maintains gold as its top pick among metals, with a target price of $5,000/oz, corresponding to the second quarter of 2027. Risks include further tightening by the Federal Reserve, a stronger dollar, and central bank gold sales.