风火山林|Oct 28, 2026 04:12
This morning, seeing the V-shaped reversal in ETH, I immediately added to my position, bringing it to 100,000 USDT, only to ruin it. When the V-shaped reversal occurred, the market seemed very strong, but I closed it shortly after, making no profit. I won't post the order details—it's embarrassing! I have transaction records in my live trading account! Looking back, the core reason this position-adding move went wrong was that I entered a position at the upper edge of the trading range, anticipating a trend breakout.
ETH is facing multiple resistance levels. Only a firm hold above 2,370 is needed to even consider the 2,400-2,420 range, a previous support/resistance zone during the decline, and a repeatedly mentioned resistance level. In other words, the point where the V-shaped reversal occurred this morning was precisely where the bears could easily reorganize their defenses, not the starting point of a trend acceleration.
More importantly, there's the price action structure. Funding rates have decreased by 56% in the past 24 hours, indicating weakening demand for leveraged long positions. While Binance's ETH open interest in USD terms has halved from its peak, the ETH price remains near its high, suggesting that leveraged positions haven't truly been cleared and long positions remain crowded. In this structure, the slope of a V-shaped reversal often stems from short covering and short-term stop-loss orders, rather than sustained spot buying. Coinbase's spot buying is indeed thick, with buy orders exceeding sell orders by approximately $4.42 million, but this is more likely to be supporting the price rather than initiating a trend.
Therefore, the judgment marked on the morning's chart remains valid. ETH is likely to trade in a range at this level, rather than rising smoothly. 2300 is the support level to watch, and 2420 is the resistance level to be repeatedly tested. Before a valid breakout of the range, adding to positions at the upper edge is extremely risk-averse. The direction may be correct, but the increased cost basis and subsequent pullbacks during the range will disrupt the investor's mindset.
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