律动BlockBeats|Oct 28, 2026 03:47
[Bitunix Analyst: Inflationary Pressures to Continue into 2027, Bond Long Trades Face Policy Test]
BlockBeats reports on October 28th that the global economy is facing a situation where growth resilience and inflation stickiness coexist. A Reuters survey shows that of the 50 economies surveyed, 31 have raised their 2027 inflation forecasts, and 23 have raised their growth forecasts. Rising energy prices and continued AI investment mean that demand has not cooled significantly, but price pressures may continue to spread. Since the beginning of October, international oil prices have remained above $100 per barrel. If the energy shock further transmits to transportation, production, and service prices, it will make it more difficult for major central banks to strike a balance between controlling inflation and maintaining growth.
Changes in energy supply are also rewriting trade costs. Indian refineries are increasing their purchases of Middle Eastern crude oil as the discount on Russian crude is gradually being offset by high freight costs; BPCL expects to reduce Russian oil imports in November, shifting to Middle Eastern supplies with more competitive landed costs. This reflects that the market is no longer truly considering just oil prices or nominal discounts, but rather shipping risks, capacity, and delivery costs. Even though the US and Russia are discussing resuming some post-war energy cooperation, these plans are predicated on the end of the conflict and are unlikely to translate into new supply in the short term.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week, but market divergence regarding future policy is deepening. Energy-driven inflation could support a longer period of tightening; on the other hand, the recent rebound in US Treasuries and increased bullish positions by investors indicate that some funds are hesitant to invest in a slowing economy. If Warsh releases a more hawkish signal, bond longs may face liquidation; if policy remains neutral, the market will need to reassess whether inflation has truly peaked.
Going forward, the key lies in whether energy costs can fall, whether price pressures will spread to core inflation, and how the Federal Reserve will respond to the tug-of-war between growth and prices. When supply risks persist and economic demand remains resilient, the market will face not only short-term oil price fluctuations, but also a coordinated reassessment of inflation expectations, financing costs, and asset valuations.
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