小龙先生|Oct 28, 2026 02:32
Musk poured $366 million into Trump's midterm election campaign. What crisis did he foresee?
Because if the Democrats win Congress, the good days for the US stock market may be over.
There's a "protective charm" circulating on Wall Street right now: Since 1946, the S&P 500 has never fallen in the 12 months following a midterm election.
Many are blindly waiting for a post-election surge.
But they're ignoring the fact that the US stock market today is no longer the same.
Look at how extreme the market is right now:
The Shiller P/E ratio (CAPE) has soared to 41, a historical extreme; the 10-year Treasury yield has broken 5%, with risk-free interest rates alarmingly high; the top ten weighted stocks in the S&P 500 account for half of the index's weight; international Brent crude oil prices have surged to around $115; and a US-Iran war is looming.
High valuations, high interest rates, extreme concentration of holdings, and high inflation.
At this critical juncture where a collapse could happen at any moment, the market predicts a greater than 90% probability of Democrats winning the House of Representatives and a 60% probability of winning both houses.
Once the Democrats control Congress and policies shift, these tech giants with sky-high valuations will be the first to suffer.
Looking back at Musk's $366 million at this point, everything becomes clear.
He wasn't buying votes; he was buying a safety net.
While retail investors are still clinging to the myth that "historical patterns inevitably lead to price increases," the big players are already buying insurance.
Do you think the US stock market can weather this midterm election storm based on these patterns, or will it experience a major crash? What about Bitcoin?
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