With the Fed decision tomorrow, here is the next useful insight from our Q4 Market Outlook. Rate cycles set the backdrop for Bitcoin, not the timing of its moves. Bitcoin peaked in October 2025 while the Fed was still cutting, and bottomed in June 2026 with rates on hold, weeks after US inflation peaked at 4.2%. The September hike is the test. Bitcoin is up about 8% since then, a break from the past: after 17 of the 20 Fed hikes since 2015, it was lower 30 days later. Whether that holds depends on the data that follow.