小龙先生|10月 26, 2026 23:34
☀️《Three-Dimensional Integrated Trading System|BTC Market Morning Briefing》
----Pre-FOMC stalemate between bulls and bears, the battle to defend 80K enters overtime, will it rebound first and then fall again?
Current price around 80K. BTC tested 79,321 after being resisted at 81K, then rebounded to 80,700 before facing resistance again. Before the FOMC, neither side dares to make the first move.
1. Volume: Bears can't push the price down, bulls lack the strength to push it up.
On the four-hour chart, bearish volume began to decrease after breaking through 80K, without further volume surges. Bullish volume also failed to increase sustainably, and the rebound was weak. The bulls and bears are currently in a stalemate.
2. On-chain: ETF outflows in a single day, retail investors are moving coins, whales are withdrawing.
ETF buying has not formed a sustained force. Whale inflows have decreased by 36%. Retail investors want to take advantage of the rebound to exit, but whales are not in a hurry to sell. Large investors are instead adding to their long positions.
3. Structure: 81K-82K is a strong resistance level for the rebound, while 79K is a short-term support level.
There are approximately 73 million buy orders around 79,300, which acts as a short-term support zone. The 81K-82K area is a concentrated area of selling pressure, representing strong resistance for this rebound. A move above 83K is needed to rebuild buyer confidence.
Core Judgment:
With decreasing short positions and dominant buying pressure, bulls will likely launch a counterattack before the FOMC meeting, taking advantage of the positive expectation of no rate hike at the end of October.
I predict an increasing probability of a rebound followed by a decline in BTC price. However, the rebound will likely encounter strong resistance around 82.5K, and after encountering resistance, it will most likely continue downward to test 79K, potentially falling to 78K-76.5K.
Before the FOMC meeting, avoid chasing the market up or down.
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