Annie 所长
Annie 所长|Oct 26, 2026 15:36
Anthropic (ANT)'s prospectus is out! It basically says three things: First: We've been selling like hotcakes: $16.3 billion in six months, 14x last year's figure. Second: But we're losing a lot of money, $80.7 billion in six months, of which $72.4 billion is in convertible bonds. Third: We owe a lot of money, 780-810 billion in computing power! Nine scary stories hidden in the prospectus: 1. The $2 trillion valuation is unlikely to be achieved in the end. Q3 growth slowed, and institutions have already voted to lower the valuation from $2 trillion to $1.5 trillion. 2. 80% of revenue comes from new models developed within the last six months. What does this mean? Without new models, revenue drops. Those without a safety net have to run as fast as they can. 3. The computing power issue might arrive before the $1 trillion valuation! Of these, GOOGL is worth $111 billion, AMZN $110 billion, MSFT approximately $31 billion, and there are also AVGO-related equipment leases, etc. 80% of these are non-cancellable; payment is required regardless of usage. Times have changed. Previously, people took out loans to buy cars and houses; now, they take out loans to buy computing power. CRWV is like a rookie compared to it. 4. Amazon and Google are bleeding money from it, with 48% of its revenue going through cloud market channels. Google's earnings report on Wednesday and Amazon's on Thursday, if cloud growth exceeds expectations, ANT and cloud giants will rise together; it's a pre-sales performance report for cloud vendors. 5. On November 4th, Dark Side of the Moon released the Kimi open-source weight, and the score is approaching Claude's. This will be the first time Anthropic's pricing power has been publicly stress-tested. 6. The prospectus states: Public shareholder voting rights will never exceed 49.9%. We want your money, but you can't interfere in our affairs. This is to prevent a forced acquisition by Musk. 7. A Damocles' Sword Hanging Over Their Heads: In 2025, nearly a quarter of their revenue came from two unknown clients, many of whom didn't have long-term contracts. If these clients leave or switch to in-house development, the cash cow will shut down. 8. Musk says the bond market is closed to pure AI companies. Anthropic wants to go public before this window closes to raise funds to stay afloat. After the IPO money runs out, it will have to issue bonds or raise additional capital, and we may soon hear about Anthropic's second round of financing. 9. Never Forget AI's Potential to Destroy the World! The prospectus uses 80 pages to explicitly state that advanced AI could destroy humanity. They resist shutting down, conceal information, and even blackmail users, so never have a naked chat with Claude! To prevent AI from destroying the world, they even say they can sacrifice shareholder profits, and you can't sue them. A good company doesn't necessarily mean a good price; don't rush into IPOs blindly!
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