律动BlockBeats|Oct 26, 2026 08:30
[Bitunix Analyst: US Housing Affordability Fails to Resolve High Interest Rates, European Fiscal Concerns Deepen Market Divergence]
BlockBeats reports on October 26th that market pressures are extending from interest rate expectations to the real economy supply chain, household financing, and government finances. The US Department of Energy's listing of helium as the 20th critical material highlights supply bottlenecks behind AI and semiconductor capacity expansion: the US accounts for approximately 43% of global helium production, but extraction facilities are nearing capacity limits, and new plant construction will take years; Qatari supply is also disrupted by the Middle East conflict, with one of Polar's three suppliers already limiting supply. As data centers continue to drive chip demand, shortages of critical materials could directly restrict production capacity.
US housing policy is also attempting to address cost-of-living pressures. Trump's executive order proposes making it easier to cancel private mortgage insurance for eligible new mortgages and expanding alternatives to refinance title insurance; however, the average interest rate for a 30-year mortgage remains around 7.32%, and fee reductions are unlikely to fundamentally reverse the burden of homeownership. The cost of living remains a key battleground in the midterm elections, with Obama criticizing Trump's war on Iraq for driving up oil prices, while the White House countered by blaming Democrats for inflationary pressures.
In Europe, Moody's maintained France's Aa3 rating but retained a negative outlook, failing to alleviate market concerns about fiscal consolidation and political gridlock. The yield on French 10-year bonds rose to 5.14%, and leveraged funds' net short positions in the euro reached their highest level since 2020, indicating that the market still demands risk compensation. On the other hand, cross-border litigation involving Russian oil trading networks reveals that under sanctions, intermediaries, delivery, and payment responsibilities are more complex, and legal and settlement risks could further disrupt energy flows.
The focus going forward is not just on whether policies can lower costs in the short term, but also on whether key materials like helium will continue to be in short supply, whether the French budget will be implemented, and whether geopolitical factors will again disrupt energy logistics. With supply constraints, fiscal pressures, and electoral factors intertwined, the market will face a redistribution of costs and risks, rather than short-term fluctuations in a single asset.
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