Parr BTC Weekly Market Report - October 26 I. Candlestick Analysis 1) The weekly chart's large range remains between 60 and 98. After accumulating 60,000 units, the price broke upwards through the weekly LH, absorbing the upper fvg liquidity to reach 874, and then entered a period of oscillating decline. It has now fallen for three consecutive weeks, and the entire month of October has been largely spent in oscillating correction, with the price reaching around EQ 79. 2) Liquidity: The key level to watch is 75. 75 represents SSL, and below it is a large fvg block. The key this week is whether this level will be breached. Based on the expected decline, the price action is divided into three levels: 1) Accumulation and consolidation around 77-78; a break above 80 and a hold above 79 would indicate a bullish trend. 2) A dip to 75, followed by a spike near 72, then a rebound to hold above 75. 3) Continued decline, testing the 64-65 level. II. Data Analysis 1) ETFs Last week, ETFs saw a total inflow of +301 million, ending the two consecutive weeks of decline in October, but the intraday trading was very volatile. The first three days saw a massive inflow of +1.075 billion (with a 665 million buy of IBIT on Monday as a base, and a combined 448 million buy of IBIT+FBTC on Wednesday), pushing the price towards $85k; Thursday saw a sharp drop of -636 million due to US tech earnings reports and oil prices, resulting in a net inflow of +301 million for the week. IBIT saw a net inflow of +566 million, single-handedly saving the market; FBTC (-117 million) and ARKB (-100 million) were the main drivers of the sell-off. Currently, the $83.6k-$85k range, a densely traded area, still experiences heavy selling pressure; the $80k-$81.3k range represents the average cost zone for ETF institutions and still offers some support. Two things to watch this week: when will FBTC stop its daily redemptions of hundreds of millions, and whether IBIT can maintain continuous positive inflows above $81.5k. 2) Stablecoins Last week, the total supply of USD stablecoins in the market decreased from approximately 306.08 billion to 303.76 billion, an apparent decrease of approximately 2.32 billion (-0.76%). Exchange Samples: Binance saw a net outflow of approximately 583 million, Bybit approximately 69 million, and MEXC approximately 47 million, totaling approximately 698 million. On-chain activity is currently still in an outflow state; attention should be paid to whether the outflow can stabilize. III. Macroeconomic Data 1) October 29 (Important Day) 02:00 FOMC Interest Rate Decision – The market believes there is a greater than 90% probability of no change, essentially pricing in a "no rate hike." 20:30 US Q3 GDP Preliminary Estimate; 20:30 US September PCE. 2) Earnings Reports Verizon: October 26, 19:00 Beijing Time Visa: October 27, After Hours Microsoft: October 28, After Hours Amazon, Intel: October 29, After Hours Focus on Microsoft, Google, and Amazon: cloud computing growth, AI revenue contribution, capital expenditure, free cash flow, and guidance. 3) Energy Risks: Diplomatic talks between the US and Iran, and between Israel, are ongoing, and the military threat remains. Houthi and Saudi attacks continue, leading to a sharp drop in the Saudi stock market. Attacks on Russian and Ukrainian cargo ships in the Black Sea have prompted a resumption of US warnings and support. This will amplify fluctuations in risk appetite. IV. Viewpoints 1) The overall trend remains downward. This week, the key is whether the macro environment will drive the market to a bottom or worsen, leading to further declines—corresponding to the three levels mentioned above: 77-78 / 75 / 64-65. 2) The real variables this week: Will energy risks ease? Will the Federal Reserve continue its hawkish stance? And can Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Intel demonstrate the sustainability of their AI capital investments with real profits?