I saw a question on Jinshi this weekend: Why isn't gold a safe haven this time? Instead, US Treasuries are being snapped up? I consulted GPT's top analysts for an in-depth analysis. And I'm sharing it with you all: US Treasuries are being snapped up, but gold is falling! What is the market really worried about? Recently, a very interesting phenomenon has emerged in the market: Oil prices are still rising, but US Treasury yields and the US dollar are falling together. According to traditional safe-haven logic, gold should benefit, but its price has actually fallen significantly. This may not be because safe-haven demand has disappeared, but rather because institutional funds are re-selecting safe-haven assets. I. Why are US Treasuries suddenly so sought after? The core reason is that the market is starting to worry about economic growth and the valuation risks of US stocks. When tech stocks are under pressure and expectations of an economic slowdown are rising, institutions are more willing to allocate to US Treasuries, which provide interest and may benefit from future interest rate cuts. Bonds are being bought, prices are rising, and yields are naturally falling. But this doesn't mean the market is no longer worried about interest rate hikes. II. Why are US Treasury yields falling despite rising oil prices? There are two different logics here: In the short term, rising oil prices push up inflation, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates. In the medium to long term, high oil prices will squeeze consumption, corporate profits, and economic growth, ultimately potentially forcing a shift in monetary policy. Therefore, the market may be trading on two things simultaneously: Short-term concerns about inflation, and long-term concerns about the economy's inability to withstand the pressure. III. Why Didn't Gold Absorb Safe-Haven Funds? I believe there are three main reasons: ① Deleveraging. When the stock market falls, some institutions may need to sell gold to replenish margin and reduce risk exposure. ② Diverting safe-haven funds to US Treasuries. US Treasuries offer coupon income, while gold does not. In an environment where real interest rates remain high, US Treasuries are more attractive to some institutions. ③ Inflation Limits Gold's Rebound. Rising oil prices mean that the Federal Reserve may find it more difficult to turn dovish, and the cost pressure of holding gold has not truly been relieved. Therefore, it's not that gold has completely lost its safe-haven attributes, but rather that the impact of short-term liquidity and fund positioning may have outweighed the traditional safe-haven logic. IV. What's the Outlook for Gold Next? My view is relatively clear: Short-term: Cautious. Institutional selling pressure hasn't completely subsided, and a rebound doesn't equate to a trend reversal. Medium-term: Focus on whether real interest rates continue to decline and whether gold ETFs can see renewed inflows. Long-term: I remain optimistic about gold's strategic allocation value. The long-term logic of the US fiscal deficit, sovereign credit risk, and global central bank reserve diversification hasn't disappeared. The most important variables going forward are the Fed's interest rate decision and PCE data. I will closely observe whether real interest rates, the US dollar, US Treasuries, and gold can re-establish a consistent trading signal. Finally, a question I'm more concerned about: Today, institutions are buying US Treasuries because they are worried about stocks and the economy. However, if the market begins to genuinely worry about US fiscal credit in the future, then the long-term US Treasuries that are currently being snapped up may become risky assets that need to be hedged. At that point, the investment logic for gold may change again. The next worthwhile opportunity for gold may not come from an escalation of war, but rather from the market's repricing of the dollar's credit and the sustainability of US fiscal policy. This is the main theme I believe is worth tracking in the long term.