妙蛙种子 | CapitalismLab|Oct 26, 2026 02:57
The Brazilian election turned into a rout, causing the stock market to plummet by 20%. Hopefully, the US midterm elections won't follow a similar pattern.
Lula defeated Flávio Bolsonaro to win her fourth presidential term (Bloomberg). The EWZ ETF, which tracks the Brazilian stock market, fell nearly 20% overnight, and EWZ contracts on the Hyperliquid perpetual contract exchange dropped from around $46 to $40.46.
This time, the pricing in the election wasn't determined by the NYSE, but by Polymarket odds and Hyperliquid's weekend contracts. During the vote count, Lula's winning probability rose from 34% to 99%, meaning retail investors had already completed their votes on-chain, while the US stock market didn't open until 9:30 AM on Monday.
Traditional markets may be closed over the weekend, but risk doesn't!
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