Don't try to buy Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) at the moment. Why? Because the two major obstacles weighing on them haven't been removed. First, money is becoming more expensive, and it continues to do so. The probability of an interest rate hike in December remains above 76%. Although US Treasury yields have fallen in the short term, if inflation data fluctuates, the risk-free return of over 5% could be wiped out at any time. Gold, BTC, and ETH don't generate interest. In this environment, holding them every day incurs opportunity cost. Second, ETFs are running away, and running away decisively. On October 22nd, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $635 million, the largest single-day outflow since the end of June. Ethereum is even worse; since October, ETFs have seen a cumulative outflow of $1.08 billion, the largest monthly outflow this year. Third, the most astute traders have already left the market. Arthur Hayes publicly stated on October 24th that he had closed all directional positions in his family office. He sold ETH, ENA, and UNI, citing "increased economic and geopolitical uncertainty." He wasn't bearish; he simply chose to exit the market. Fourth, technically, the 80K support level has already been breached once. BTC bottomed at 79,146, and although it recovered after a brief dip, the daily chart's center of gravity is shifting downwards. 77K is the ultimate bottom of a quadruple confluence, but the probability of it holding is only 50%-55%. If 77K breaks again, 73K is waiting below. Therefore, rushing in now is not bottom fishing. It's catching a falling knife. Wait for two key time points before considering bottom fishing for Bitcoin spot: (1) After the midterm elections on November 3rd, after Trump orders an attack on Iran; (2) After the interest rate hike on December 10th. Until then, refrain from buying.