金色财经|Oct 25, 2026 14:05
[China Merchants Securities Strategy: Multiple A-Share Indicators Approaching Historical Lows] According to a report by Jinse Finance on October 25th, a China Merchants Securities strategy report suggests that after the recent rapid market decline, multiple A-share indicators are approaching historical lows: trading volume has significantly decreased, turnover rate has fallen to near historical lows, medium- and long-term funds, represented by ETFs, are accelerating their entry into the market, increasing market stabilization efforts; the institutionalization of market stabilization mechanisms is strengthening, and the policy bottom is gradually being solidified; market bottoms often precede fundamental bottoms, and current earnings and PPI are still showing an improving trend, providing a positive driving force for A-shares. Regarding external pressures, leverage in the Japanese and South Korean markets has significantly decreased, and overseas transmission risks are controllable; however, US stock AI pricing is shifting from "investment expansion" to "capital return verification," coupled with high US Treasury yields and rising oil prices compressing the space for easing, high interest rates still constrain valuations. Considering that historically, the probability of a market rebound after ETF volume support is relatively high, the short-term market may focus on consolidation and structural opportunities. It is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation and pay close attention to key milestones in the next two weeks. The core strategy for sector allocation over the next 3-6 months is as follows: during periods of high interest rates, focus on the advantages of the numerator (the sector's growth rate), followed by the health of the asset structure; when interest rates turn downward, prioritize technology-related sectors; and wait for subsequent domestic policies to further extend to domestic demand.
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