Whether bitcoin:native can hold above $80,000 next week will be a crucial turning point for its future price movement! Currently, the price is hovering around $80,000. The weekly chart shows a series of lower highs during rebounds, with the $84,000-$85,000 area forming resistance again. Technically, the weekly KDJ indicator has formed a death cross at a high level, the MACD histogram is contracting, and the RSI is still above 50. This indicates that the medium-term rebound momentum is weakening, but the bulls haven't completely lost their defensive capabilities. There is also disagreement regarding fund flows. Institutional funds haven't completely withdrawn, but they also lack the willingness to continuously chase prices. Next week, the real determinants of BTC's direction will be the US stock market and macro liquidity. The Fed's interest rate decision, GDP, PCE, and earnings reports from tech giants will all be released. The market has already priced in unchanged interest rates. More importantly, the Fed's attitude towards future policy and whether inflation data can alleviate pressure on US Treasury yields are crucial. If the Nasdaq continues to be under pressure, BTC will find it difficult to remain unaffected; only if the US stock market stabilizes and ETFs resume continuous inflows can the rebound be sustained. My assessment: Next week is likely to see an initial weakness followed by stabilization, primarily focusing on the $78,000-$84,000 range. The overall direction is cautious for now. The $79,000-$80,000 level is the first line of defense; a break below this level could lead to a drop to $77,500 or even $75,000. On the upside, a recovery above $82,000 followed by a hold above $84,000-$85,000 is necessary before a retest of $87,000. I do not advocate blindly shorting near $80,000, nor will I confirm a bottom based on a single rebound. What's truly worrisome is not a decline after negative news has been priced in, but rather a failure to rise after positive news has been priced in.