小龙先生|10月 25, 2026 11:23
After the V-shaped recovery, will there be any further upward momentum?
The A-share market staged a dramatic V-shaped recovery last Friday. So the question is, who fueled that rally?
Undoubtedly, it was the "national team" (government-backed funds). Since September 28th, ETFs have seen net inflows exceeding 270 billion yuan, with the four major public funds collectively purchasing shares on Friday. This represents a substantial influx of capital.
However, can this upward momentum continue next week? It depends on three things:
First, the Federal Reserve's stance.
The interest rate decision will be announced early Thursday morning. While it's highly likely the Fed will hold rates steady, the core PCE data will be released that same evening. If inflation exceeds expectations and external liquidity tightens, it will be difficult for the A-share market to receive further support.
Second, the quality of the Q3 earnings reports.
The end of October is a peak period for earnings announcements. If tech stocks don't perform well, Friday's V-shaped recovery is likely a trap, designed to lure in buyers before a further decline.
Third, the situation in the Middle East.
Trump's plans to target Iran after the midterm elections could cause oil prices to surge, reigniting global inflation—a potentially toxic investment opportunity.
So, what should we, as retail investors, do?
Friday's sharp V-shaped recovery was certainly tempting. But don't get carried away and invest all your capital.
As long as trading volume doesn't continue to increase, hold onto your core positions and wait for a clear right-side signal before jumping in.
After all, even the most impressive V-shaped recovery is useless without a catalyst.
Next week, are you planning to go all in, or hold back?
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