Today, CNN analyzed possible scenarios for the Senate midterm elections, mentioning one possibility: polls in key states (such as Ohio, Maine, Texas, Michigan, and Alaska) are very close. 1) If the polls are completely accurate, the Democrats have a path to a majority; 2) However, historically, in states where Trump has won, Republican candidates have averaged a lead of about 4.1 percentage points over the final polls. If this "polls underestimating the Republicans" scenario occurs again, the Republicans could retain their majority (e.g., maintaining 52-48 or 53-47). Of course, current market predictions and most independent forecasting models indicate that the Democrats still hold a lead in the Senate race (with a probability of approximately 55%-70%), but the gap is not as large as in the House of Representatives; the Senate remains highly competitive. We, the observers, can only continue to watch.