$80,000 Dip and Recover: This Week's Account is More Worth Analyzing Than the Chart On Saturday night, bitcoin:native fluctuated below $80,000 for less than three hours before recovering. While the chart is active around key psychological levels, the real focus this week is on several key indicators. I. Those Weekend Hours Coinbase BTC-USD Hourly Chart (Beijing Time): October 24th, 22:00: Lowest point $79,707; 23:00: Lowest point $79,107, closing at $79,691.25, the only hourly candle to close below $80,000 since 18:00 that evening; October 25th, 00:00: Lowest point $79,475; 01:00: Lowest point exactly $80,000, after which it didn't fall further. As of 10:14 AM today, the best bid price on Coinbase is $80,751.84. Binance spot BTCUSDT, calculated in UTC, reached a low of $79,220.74 on October 24th and closed at $80,888.16, the lowest intraday low since September 18th (low of $76,296). US stocks and US stock ETFs were closed over the weekend, and the volatility in these few hours occurred during a period without ETF creation or redemption. II. ETFs: Inflows in the first three days, outflows in the last two days, but still net inflows for the week. Farside's statistics on daily net outflows (in millions of USD) for US spot Bitcoin ETFs: 10/19 +526.7, 10/20 +23.2, 10/21 +524.8, 10/22 -635.6, 10/23 -137.9. The five-day total was +301.2, or a net inflow of approximately $301 million. By product, IBIT saw a weekly total increase of approximately +565.7, while FBTC saw a decrease of approximately -116.6. The HODL figure for October 23rd on the Farside page is not yet filled in, so the final total may be slightly revised. Looking at these figures: buying pressure was present before Wednesday, turning to outflows on Thursday and Friday, but the outflows over the two days did not offset the inflows of the previous three days. III. US Stocks and Interest Rates: Friday closed lower, with mixed results for the week. Closing prices on October 23rd (Friday): Dow Jones Industrial Average 52,215.16 (-1.23%), S&P 500 7,623.68 (-0.52%), Nasdaq Composite 25,955.34 (-0.21%). On a weekly basis, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.41%, the S&P 500 fell 0.47%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.71%. The US Treasury yield curve: 10-year yields were 5.13% on 10/21, 4.96% on 10/22, and 5.00% on 10/23. Regarding crude oil, Yahoo Finance showed WTI futures at $103.27 and Brent at $116.72 on Friday. The 10-year yield is around 5%, and oil prices are above $100. This is the backdrop for risk assets this week; it's unavoidable when analyzing any candlestick chart. IV. Where Did the Largest Cryptocurrency Holder Spend Its Money Last Week? Strategy (MSTR)'s 8-K filing with the SEC on October 19th clearly states that during the week of October 12th to 18th: Purchased 267 BTC, approximately $22.1 million, at an average price of approximately $82,900; funds came from a net $22 million MSTR ATM offering and $100,000 in cash. During the same period, it repurchased 1,938,780 STRC preferred shares, amounting to $193.1 million, approximately 8.7 times the amount spent on cryptocurrency purchases. The preferred stock repurchase authorization was increased from $2 billion to $3 billion, leaving a remaining quota of $1.16 billion. - Used $45.5 million of its dollar reserves to pay preferred stock dividends. - As of October 18th, the company held 848,517 BTC, with a total cost of approximately $64.02 billion and an average price of $75,446 (including fees); $4.83 billion in USD reserves and $447.3 million in USD cash. Based on Coinbase's price of approximately $80,750 this morning, the current price is about 7% higher than its average holding price; the average purchase price of the 267 BTC last week was $82,900, and it is currently still below that level. The 8-K itself doesn't explain why buybacks far outweigh purchases. Michael Saylor provided the company's explanation on X at 00:26 Beijing time today: the Digital Credit Capital Framework launched four months ago is working, and programmatic STRC buybacks have helped strengthen the credit market and also supported MSTR. This is the company's own explanation, which I am only paraphrasing. What is certain is that this week it spent more than eight times the amount of money on its own preferred stock compared to the amount spent on Bitcoin. V. Several Things to Watch Next Week October 27th (Tuesday): Israeli parliamentary elections. The Federal Reserve will hold its FOMC meeting from October 27th to 28th. The statement will be released at 2:00 AM Beijing time on October 29th. Strategy's last weekly 8-K report was submitted on Monday (October 19th). If the next report is released as scheduled, it's worth comparing two figures: the ratio of cryptocurrency purchases to preferred stock buybacks, and the balance of US dollar reserves. After the US stock market opens on Monday, ETF flows will provide a new set of data besides spot market data. 80,000 is a round number; the market likes round numbers. What determines whether a position can withstand the pressure are the cost basis, cash, and liabilities. Observe others' situations, and observe your own. The above is a compilation of publicly available data and does not constitute investment advice. BTC Bitcoin Strategy MSTR Bitcoin ETF FOMC