金色财经|Oct 25, 2026 03:37
[Nomura: Maintains 3.50% Terminal Interest Rate Forecast for Bank of Korea, 25 Basis Point Rate Hikes Expected in November and February] Jinse Finance reports on October 25th that Nomura Securities stated that the Bank of Korea's unanimous agreement in October to maintain its interest rate was in line with our expectations, and a rate hike in November remains our baseline scenario. The Bank of Korea hinted at an upward revision of its economic growth and inflation forecasts in November, but its policy guidance was more hawkish than its economic outlook. Limited intervention helps explain its prudent approach. We believe that the lack of broad improvement in household income and consumption has led to disagreements among Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members regarding the persistence of inflation and the need for further policy tightening. We maintain our 3.50% terminal interest rate forecast and expect rate hikes of 25 basis points each in November 2026 and February 2027. Weak household purchasing power and a strengthening won are likely to dampen inflation, while the November forecasts and dot plot will test the market's support for a higher peak interest rate. (Jinshi)
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