Relly | 期权策略/宏观分析|Oct 24, 2026 17:25
On October 22nd, US Treasury yields plummeted, US stocks fell sharply, gold prices dropped significantly, and the US dollar weakened slightly. All of this occurred during US stock trading hours. Such price resonance is extremely rare historically. It happened three times in the 2020s: the first was on March 9th, 2020; the second was on August 5th, 2024; and all three were accompanied by macroeconomic turmoil and extreme panic. The August 5th event saw a direct bottom, while the March 9th event saw a further decline, but it was also close to the bottom.
The market has already experienced two consecutive weeks of sharp declines. The last week of October is crucial, as many fundamental events will occur this week.
1) Three of the four major cloud computing companies will release their earnings reports next week: MSFT and Google after the market closes on the 28th, and AMZN after the market closes on the 29th. The growth and capital expenditure figures of these companies will have a significant impact on the entire AI sector and should be closely monitored.
2) The Israeli election begins on October 27th, with results expected on the 30th. Both sides in the election are hardliners on the Middle East situation, but the outcome could still change the course of action regarding Iran.
3) On October 29th, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision. After last week's decline in US Treasury yields, the market expects rates to remain unchanged in October.
4) Next week, the interest rate decisions of Europe and Japan will also be released, which will have a significant impact on US Treasury yields.
The macroeconomic situation will not become clear until Friday.
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