Do you think the decline of US stocks is due to the AI foam, and the decline of Bitcoin is due to the outflow of ETFs? It's all wrong ❗ ️ Have you noticed a strange phenomenon The US stock market fell, followed by Bitcoin's decline; The US stock market rebounded, but Bitcoin is still half dead. Many people think it's two independent markets. In fact, the correlation between the Nasdaq and Bitcoin has reached about 40%, and the underlying script is the same: they are facing the same two mountains. ⛰️ The first big mountain: the expectation of interest rate hikes has forced a strong US dollar. The situation in the Middle East has pushed up oil prices, and the shadow of inflation persists. The knife of interest rate hike in December hangs over our heads, and as the US dollar strengthens, the yield of US bonds will bite more than 5%. US tech stocks and Bitcoin are non interest bearing assets. The stronger the US dollar, the harder they can breathe. ⛰️ The second mountain: The United States and Japan join forces to drain liquidity. The Japanese yen is raising interest rates, the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates, and the 10-year and 30-year yields of US bonds are above 5%. Global liquidity is being drained. Funds flowed back into the US dollar, and both risky and interest free assets were drained. US tech stocks were drawn, and Bitcoin was also drawn. But when these two mountains were pressed down, the results were vastly different. Behind the technology stocks in the US stock market, there are hard performing companies such as NVIDIA, Micron, and Microsoft that can make money. Bitcoin has no cash flow and relies solely on liquidity and emotions to sustain it. So when liquidity tightens, Bitcoin's elasticity is greater than that of the US stock market: Falling harder and rebounding faster. ⚠️ The real situation of the US stock market now is that the index is in the cloud, while individual stocks are in the mud. Once the AI foam bursts, these high-tech companies with good performance will not be able to keep the index high, and will certainly fall together with the index. So, the focus now is not on the candlestick, but on continuous interest rate hikes and high 10-year US Treasury yields. As long as the knife to raise interest rates in December has not yet landed, and as long as the 10-year US Treasury yield remains above 5%, these two mountains cannot be moved away. What's even more frightening is that the Federal Reserve is highly likely to raise interest rates twice in 2027. Whether it's the US stock market or Bitcoin, they are just struggling to survive now. When will the negative effects of interest rate hikes be realized, and when the effective yield of US bonds falls below 5% and turns downwards, the real window of repair will open. Before that, control your hands. Leave the bullets for a real counterattack. Can you guess if the December interest rate hike lands, will the first one to climb out of the pit be the US stock market or Bitcoin? See the comment section.