The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 90.6% According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged until October is 90.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 9.4%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until December is 25.8%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 67.5%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 6.7%.