比特幣交易者 科幣託 crypto|10月 23, 2026 17:35
New warning signs for Bitcoin! Long term holders are starting to sell, should we be worried?
The latest on chain data from CryptoQuant shows that a highly noteworthy change is happening.
The 30 day net position change of Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) has once again turned negative!
From the chart, it can be seen that:
From May to June this year, long-term holders significantly increased their holdings, with a net increase of nearly one million BTC in 30 days.
But starting from the end of August, this trend gradually reversed.
In October, the decrease in net holdings of long-term holders is even expanding!
What does this represent?
Investors who used to be willing to hold Bitcoin for a long time are now experiencing a decline in overall holdings.
And these people are often participants in the market who are relatively less susceptible to short-term price fluctuations.
When long-term holders begin to reduce their holdings, we must pay attention to whether the market is facing new supply pressures.
But I believe that it is not yet possible to draw a direct conclusion that a bear market is imminent.
Because in history, the decline in holdings of long-term holders has also occurred during bull markets.
What really matters is not whether someone sells, but whether the market has enough buying opportunities to take over!
If long-term holders continue to reduce their holdings, but ETF fund inflows and spot demand increase simultaneously, the market may still absorb these supplies.
On the other hand
If long-term holders continue to reduce their holdings, ETF funds begin to withdraw and prices cannot break through important pressures.
⚠️ So these potential selling pressures may become catalysts for the next wave of decline!
Additionally, it should be noted that this data represents the net position changes of long-term holders, and some changes may be influenced by the age classification of the currency, which does not necessarily equate to actual exchange sell orders.
What I am most concerned about now is not whether long-term holders have sold, but who bought the Bitcoin they sold!
Because of a healthy bull market, there are people selling.
But even if someone sells in large quantities, the price can still continue to create higher highs.
Next, I will continue to observe the net position changes of long-term holders, the flow of ETF funds, and the carrying capacity of the spot market.
Do you think this is a normal chip turnover in a bull market, or have long-term holders already sensed the risk in advance?
Responsible for analyzing with position.
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