Today's deep V reversal in A-shares, is it an invitation or a true reversal? I saw a friend say, 'Today's A-share market surged 3.49% this afternoon, just to trick you into entering the market, this sickle is smoking!'! That's amazing! The tricks of Da A have remained unchanged for thousands of years. ” Because he saw a net outflow of 16.25 billion yuan from the market 8 hours ago, while I saw the current market data from Tonghuashun showing a net outflow of 2.537 billion yuan. There are differences in time, as well as differences in the amount of net outflow of funds. Looking at the overall market data now, it will be more accurate because it has already closed. However, we cannot judge whether inviting the emperor into the urn or a true reversal based solely on the net outflow of funds. We need to objectively and dialectically analyze and judge. Otherwise, we would become clickbait bloggers and overly subjective. Let me first draw the conclusion: today's deep V reversal in A-shares is neither a 'please enter the barrel' nor a 'true reversal'. It is just a oversold rebound jointly completed by the "national team bottoming out+industry leaders self rescue" and supported by real incremental funds. Why does the "sickle theory" not hold up? Firstly, the quantity is real, not virtual. Today's transaction volume between the two markets was 1.97 trillion yuan, an increase of 431 billion yuan compared to yesterday. If it's a scam to enter, the main force doesn't need to spend so much real money to create such a large trading volume. Increasing the amount of yang and decreasing the amount to attract more are two different things. Secondly, the acceptance of broad-based ETFs is a characteristic of "allocation funds". The trading volume of stock ETFs exceeded 200 billion yuan today, and the trading volume of broad-based ETFs reached 124.2 billion yuan, both setting new highs in their respective stages. Guolian An Fund clearly stated that this is a typical signal of "allocation funds entering the market". In history, during the index adjustment stage, broad-based ETFs have continued to increase in volume, often representing the recognition of the allocation range by medium and long-term funds. Thirdly, the collective shouting of the leaders at noon is a "fuse", not a "cover for shipment". Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyisheng and other optical communication leaders disclosed their business dynamics at noon in response to concerns about "slowing demand for AI". After the afternoon opening, it rose sharply. If it is a shipment, the leading company does not need to issue a notice of "self certification of innocence" at this stage. Fourthly, the main capital has indeed entered the market. According to the Securities Times Data Treasure, the main funds had a net inflow of 3.516 billion yuan throughout the day, with a net inflow of 4.083 billion yuan from the ChiNext board and 7.346 billion yuan from the electronics industry leading the way. Zhongji Xuchuang's individual stock main net inflow was 1.643 billion yuan. Why do you say 'not a true reversal'? The driving force behind today's rise is emotional recovery and financial support, not fundamental improvement. Today's deep V is a continuation of the panic market, not the start of a bull market. It's not inviting the emperor into the urn. The national team uses broad-based ETFs to undertake, the leading companies use announcements to save themselves, and northbound net purchases in individual stocks are all real and well documented actions. If it's for deceiving people, there's no need to put in so much effort. It's not really a reversal either. Because it is the oversold repair and policy bottom expectations that drive the rise, rather than the confirmation of corporate profit turning points. What is it again? This is an oversold rebound market supported by the national team, initiated by industry leaders, and supported by incremental funds. Remember, this is just a rebound market, not a true trend market. We can follow along, but we need to know what money we are making. We are making money for emotional recovery, not for trend reversal. The real test is at the end of October. The third quarter report is out, and if the performance can be realized, today's deep V is the bottom. If it cannot be fulfilled, those who rush in today will be the next batch to be buried.