Headlines say the Fed is injecting $3.65 billion into the economy today. Look closer. The Fed holds mortgage bonds, and as homeowners pay them off, it gets that money back and puts it into short-term government debt. One asset swapped for another, so the balance sheet stays the same size. It’s not new stimulus. The bigger signals: the Fed has stopped shrinking its balance sheet, almost no cash is parked at the Fed overnight, and liquidity in the system is roughly $70 billion higher than a year ago. The next big moment is the Fed’s rate decision on October 28. What are you watching more, the rate call or the liquidity trend?