Share a trading rule with everyone: A false breakthrough upwards often breeds a true decline; A false downward drop often breeds a true upward trend. This is the most classic "reverse induction" trap in the capital market. Why does this pattern hold? Firstly, the essence of upward false breakthroughs is "luring and strangling". The main capital creates the illusion of a breakthrough at key resistance levels, deceiving retail investors who follow the trend and quantitative breakthrough strategies into taking over the market, plundering the liquidity of long positions, and then hitting the market with a backhand, triggering a chain of stop loss orders, thus completing the real downward selling or short selling. Secondly, the essence of the downward false drop is "hunting for stop loss and attracting funds". Below the key support level, there are often numerous stop loss orders from retail investors and liquidation lines for leveraged long orders. The main force intentionally smashed through, triggering panic trading and programmed stop loss orders to gain short liquidity, and then calmly took out blood carrying chips at the bottom, quickly pulling up afterwards. Thirdly, Soros' theory of reflexivity. The cognitive biases of market participants will self reinforce. Fake actions deceive most people's cognition, and when the public reacts, the trend has already reversed. But why can't we blindly believe in this law and not carve a boat to seek a sword? If you have no brain to buy at the bottom just because you 'break below support', or if you have no brain to short because you 'break through resistance', you will die a miserable death. Because: Firstly, you cannot distinguish what is' fake '. Breaking through a key position, is it a false breakthrough or the starting point of a true trend? No one knows until it's finished. Many times, the so-called 'fake breakthrough' is just a washing up of the trend relay, and after washing it out, it continues to soar. Secondly, there is a lack of confirmation on the time dimension. An effective breakthrough can be seen in three days, or even the weekly closing, and an effective breakout can be seen in the same way. If time is not filtered, if it falls on the first day, it may be a false drop, and the next day it may become a real crash. Thirdly, the market environment determines authenticity. At the end of a bear market characterized by liquidity depletion and extreme macro pessimism, a "false dip" may turn into a "true dip" because there is simply no funding to pick up the market. The real trading system is not about guessing whether it is fake or not, but about: Wait for it to complete its feint before starting. After a false breakthrough upwards, when it falls back below the resistance level, that is the short selling point on the right side. After a false downward drop, wait for it to return to above the support level again, that's a long position on the right side. Let's give a real case (as shown in the figure below): BTC has recently broken through the daily downward triangle structure with a large volume, and the price has rebounded to around 84.8K at one point. However, with the global stock market plummeting and prices reaching the upper pressure zone, BTC quickly fell again to around 81K yesterday. The upward movement and breakthrough of Bitcoin at the upper boundary of the descending triangle this time can be said to be a fake breakthrough! Will there be a real downturn in the future? With the midterm elections on November 3rd approaching and the short-term sell-off of whales and ETF institutions, will BTC prices fall below 80K and drop to around 77K? This is worth our vigilance. Moreover, based on predicted market data, it is highly likely that Trump will lose both houses in this midterm election. After losing, will Trump go crazy and directly order the bombing of Iran? We should not be the ones who are tricked into traps by fake actions, but the ones who wait until the fake actions are exposed to pick up blood chips.