CoinShares: Bitcoin has remained relatively strong this week, and future trends depend on interest rate expectations According to the latest market update from CoinShares on October 23rd, despite further volatility in risk assets this week, Bitcoin as a whole still shows resilience, supported by the rebound in spot demand, improved stock market sentiment, and partial short covering; However, the market is shifting from chasing AI narratives to focusing on corporate profit realization, with some US companies experiencing stock market volatility due to lower than expected financial reports, and Bitcoin being temporarily dragged down. Macroscopically, the US real estate data has clearly weakened: the confidence index of residential builders has dropped to 29 (the lowest since June 2012), new home construction in September decreased by 5.2% month on month, and the contracted sales index of existing homes decreased by 7.3% month on month to 66.0 (the lowest since records began in 2001). CoinShares indicates that high borrowing costs continue to suppress the economy. In terms of interest rates, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates unchanged at its meeting on October 28th; As of October 20th, Polymarket has priced the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate hike at around 12%, while CME has priced it at around 17%, which is much lower than over 40% a week ago. However, the expectation of another interest rate hike in December is still close to 83%. CoinShares believes that Bitcoin is highly sensitive to interest rate expectations, and if there is an unexpected interest rate hike in October or if it exceeds the already priced December rate hike, the direction of the cryptocurrency market in the next stage is more likely to be determined by the interest rate path.