Bitwise: Bitcoin implied volatility drops to three-year low, long-term holders continue to distribute chips According to BlockBeats, on October 23rd, Bitwise released a report stating that Bitcoin is currently resilient around $82000, which is close to the holding cost of spot ETFs. The key points below include a short-term holder cost price of approximately $74800 and a real market average of approximately $77600. The former can serve as a reference for determining the short-term market direction, while the latter corresponds to the price level at which half of the invested capital in the market is in a profit or loss state. The price range formed by these two points together may become the dividing line between long and short positions. The trading range of Bitcoin in the past 30 days and 60 days has narrowed to 1.8% and 3.0%, respectively, and the implied volatility of the average of each period is also close to the bottom of the distribution range of the past three years. Among them, the 3-month and 6-month implied volatility are at the 0.8th and 0.2th percentile of the historical distribution, respectively, indicating that the market's pricing for future volatility has dropped to an extremely low level. So far this week, the net inflow of US Bitcoin spot ETFs has reached 1.074 billion US dollars, rising in sync with the cumulative trading volume difference of spot funds, providing support for Bitcoin prices and offsetting some macro pressures. However, the market has also achieved an increase in profits, especially for long-term holders. At the same time, the net position change indicator for long-term holders is negative, indicating that they may be in the stage of distributing positions, which may be one of the reasons for the continued consolidation of Bitcoin prices. [Original link]