看不懂的SOL|Oct 23, 2026 08:51
Share a quote from Buffett with my brothers: 99% of companies will disappear.
Buffett shares quotes (classic excerpt)
The biggest discovery of my life is not how to choose stocks or read financial reports, but the cruel truth that 99% of companies will disappear.
The celebrity companies you see today are highly likely to no longer exist in 20 years.
IBM once dominated the industry for 60 years, but was ultimately eliminated by the technology wave. Kodak invented the digital camera, but died at the hands of digitization.
But there are five industries that are as certain as the sun rises every day - they existed 20 years ago, exist today, and will continue to exist 20 years later, and they will become increasingly valuable.
That afternoon at the grocery store
When I was 14 years old, I worked at the Buffett family grocery store in Omaha. The boss is Ernest Buffett, the grandfather of Warren Buffett, a strict German old man.
He demanded that we work 12 hours a day, without meal breaks or rest, and receive a salary of only $2.
One day, a customer named Tom came to the store, in his fifties, dressed in a decent suit and driving a Ford car. He is the owner of another grocery store in town.
I saw him standing in front of the shelf for a long time, staring blankly at the price tag, and finally only bought a bag of flour before leaving.
Ernest looked at his back and said to me, 'This person is finished.'
I don't understand, "I asked." Why? Does he look quite wealthy
Ernest said, "Look at what he's buying - flour. If a grocery store owner comes to me to compare prices and buy flour, it means his store can't hold on anymore
Why did Tom lose
Sure enough, Tom's shop closed after two months.
Why? Because a new chain supermarket has opened across from his store.
The price is 10% cheaper than him, the variety is twice as many as him, and there is also a parking lot.
Tom desperately lowered the price in order to retain customers, but his procurement costs were high. If you lower the price, you will lose money. If you don't lower the price, all the customers will leave.
The last time I saw him was at the bakery on the street corner. His hair is all white, his back is hunched, and his eyes are hollow.
He said to me, "Charlie, I've been in the grocery business for 30 years and thought I knew a lot. But what I don't understand is that there are no moats in this business. Anyone can open a grocery store, and anyone can sell it cheaper than me. What I lost to was not my competitors, but the essence of this industry
A business without a moat is just running naked.
At that moment, I was 14 years old, but I remembered a saying: without a moat, business is running naked.
If you make money today, someone will steal it tomorrow.
That's why later on, Warren Buffett and I never invested in perfectly competitive industries - grocery stores, restaurants, clothing stores, small factories.
These businesses may seem simple, but in reality they are the most difficult to do.
Because the threshold is too low and the competition is too fierce, the moat is zero.
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Mapping to investment, the same principle applies. The essence of choosing a target is to select a business that 'others cannot steal its profits'. Only companies with brands, network effects, conversion costs, and scale advantages can maintain profits.
This is also the reason for the long-term effectiveness of the index. The constituent stocks of the S&P 500 are already top companies that have been screened through barriers and have moats, and Rotten Tomatoes cannot enter.
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