PalBTC Market Daily -10.23 1、 Daily chart (Figure 1) 1. Currently, the K-line The market is still fluctuating, and it can be seen that both the upper and lower parts of the range have been plundered, and yesterday it fell all the way back to the lower half of the range. 2. Macro related to the US stock market 1) BTC's rise on Tuesday and Wednesday was mainly driven by the 600 million yuan buy in of ibit on the 19th and false news of US Iran talks on the 20th, followed by a real increase of over 500 million buy in by various institutions on the 21st (Figure 2). 2) This process is also accompanied by the rebound of US stocks, especially technology stocks. But with concerns about credit risk triggered by yesterday's post market meta financial report, the AI sector once again became a selling center, with the index falling 2.60% and the semiconductor index plummeting 6.7%. At present, the valuation of the AI sector is shrinking, and demand remains strong, but the market is beginning to punish capital consumption. So BTC also fell directly with the US stock market after being plundered yesterday. 3) However, just like last night when Procter&Gamble rose 5.6% and Lockheed Martin rose 7%, funds are actually shifting from overvalued technology stocks to some more defensive and profitable companies, such as energy, defense, and defensive stocks, which are relatively strong. In addition, yesterday's 10Y yield dropped by 17bp, causing a large amount of funds to hedge and buy US bonds. This corresponds to BTC being relatively stronger than technology stocks. 4) Summary: Currently, the market is trading two types of risks simultaneously: AI financing risk and Middle East energy supply risk. BTC currently has both technology stock attributes and a slight risk aversion attribute. So currently, we are in a volatile game, but if the risk of technology stocks continues to increase, we need to be vigilant about the simultaneous deleveraging of venture capital. Next week's FOMC and financial reports from Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Intel will be key. 3. Trend judgment 1) The overall trend is still volatile and biased downwards, unless next week's financial report changes and the technology stock adjustment ends. 2) BTC's current position at 8W is still a support level, so let's first test it here at 8W. Because BTC is relatively stronger than US technology stocks, a slight rebound in US stocks will lead to a rebound in BTC, which means it will continue to fluctuate. But I think the rebound is still a short selling opportunity. 3) If it falls below 8W, then look at the ob test around 77. To be a pipe dream, I actually hope to break below 77 and complete a retracement, and then hope that next week's financial report will be positive for technology stocks and rebound together after the adjustment is completed. Hahaha. 2、 Hour chart (Figure 3) 1) Let's focus on the 822 bearish trend first. If we can't break through here, it's definitely weak. Continue to be bearish and see if we can break below 8W. 2) If there is a breakthrough here, then we need to look at the rebound, first look at 83, then look at 84.