Relly | 期权策略/宏观分析|10月 22, 2026 22:15
Normally, one should ask: Is this correct?
The yield of treasury bond bonds fell, the dollar fell, gold fell and US stocks fell.
Today Thursday, there was a global tech stock market frenzy. Previously, debt crisis panic dominated emotions, so when US bond yields fell, stocks always rose.
Today, in the opposite direction, treasury bond bond yields and stocks fell together.
The AI panic of the stock market has exceeded the panic of the debt crisis, and treasury bond has become a safe haven asset again, so funds flow from the stock market to the bond market, pushing up bond prices.
The past two weeks have been the largest tech stock sell-off by hedge funds in the US stock market in over five years, with bearish leverage reaching the historical 99th percentile. When the market rises, bulls are greedy, and bears are no exception.
But today, neither the S&P nor the Nasdaq fell below their key positions. The options expire tomorrow Friday, and the market is always moving in a direction that makes most people uncomfortable, perhaps killing a wave of put.
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