Three dimensional integrated trading system | BTC market analysis (3/3): structural form and core judgment The downward triangle broke through and rose, but was suppressed and fell. Pay special attention to the price watershed after November 3rd. Currently, 84.8K is the short-term ceiling and 81K is the short-term support. BTC fluctuates within the range of 81K-84.8K. Last night, the attempt to reach a height of 84.8K failed, indicating that the pressure drop above is real. The 81K below is short-term support, with short-term absorption. Macroscopically, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has fallen to 5.08%, and oil prices are around $110. The risk pressure is still relatively high, but AI credit risk is still fermenting, with CoreWeave's CDS spread above 1090 basis points. Xiaolong's core judgment: Bitcoin remains a high-risk asset with a correlation of 40 to the Nasdaq. When oil prices are still above $110 and US Treasury yields are around 5.08%, the market is still concerned about macro fundamentals. So today, global stock markets are experiencing a sharp decline. Bitcoin is also difficult to escape unscathed, and its price has fallen under multiple pressures. However, the price has temporarily held above 81K. If there is a sustained decline and collapse in the US stock market, Bitcoin will also be doomed and will inevitably follow the US stock market to plummet. This has always been a concern for me. However, now the AI foam has only appeared cracks and has not yet burst. If there is no interest rate hike in October, institutions such as BlackRock are still buying, and medium-sized whales are also buying. In the short to medium term, the price of Bitcoin is expected to fluctuate widely between 81K-88K. After November 3rd, Bitcoin may first fall to the bottom and then rise to around 95K. Please refer to the daily price deduction chart below. November 3rd is a watershed for the financial market, including Bitcoin, in the short and medium term. It is estimated that Bitcoin will not have a good upward trend before November 3rd.